Egypt’s grain trade is facing a delicate balance as the country’s corn and wheat markets move in different directions. While corn imports are struggling against an oversupplied domestic market, wheat demand remains firm, with steady import volumes expected in 2025.
Traders, importers, and buyers are watching these developments closely, weighing risks and opportunities as global prices, freight costs, and demand dynamics shift.
Corn imports into Egypt are forecast to reach 8.7 million metric tons (MMT) in the 2025/26 marketing year, a modest increase from the previous year. However, importers are finding themselves in a difficult position, as the domestic market is dealing with an oversupply of 1.5-1.6 MMT.
This surplus has put pressure on local corn prices, forcing traders to sell at levels that do not cover replacement costs. Most of Egypt’s corn demand is driven by the poultry and livestock feed industries, which account for roughly 80% of total consumption. However, post-Ramadan buying has been slower than expected, as feed mills hesitate to make large purchases amid economic uncertainty.
The cautious sentiment is reflected in pricing: imported corn from Brazil, Ukraine, and Argentina is landing in Egypt at $250-$256 per metric ton (CIF), while domestic corn is trading closer to $240.85 per ton—a clear sign that traders are struggling with negative margins.Despite weak short-term demand, the outlook for Egypt’s corn market may improve by the middle of the year.
As stocks are drawn down, importers could re-enter the market in May-July, seeking fresh cargoes. However, much will depend on macroeconomic factors, particularly currency stability and inflation, which continue to shape the purchasing power of Egyptian buyers.
While the corn market is weighed down by oversupply, Egypt’s wheat imports remain a pillar of the country’s food security strategy. The world’s largest wheat importer is expected to bring in 13 MMT in 2025/26, maintaining its reliance on global suppliers even as domestic wheat production inches higher to 9.3 MMT.
A significant portion of these imports will come from Russia, which continues to dominate Egypt’s wheat purchases. Russian wheat has remained the most cost-effective option, benefiting from lower freight costs and flexible financing terms. Currently, FOB Black Sea wheat is trading at $248 per metric ton, with landed CIF Egypt prices around $270 per ton.
By comparison, French wheat from Rouen is priced slightly higher at $273 per ton, while Ukrainian wheat offers a competitive alternative at $268 per ton CIF.
Egypt is also expanding its wheat flour exports, particularly to African and Middle Eastern markets. With exports expected to grow by 20% to 1.7 MMT in 2025, local milling demand will remain strong, supporting overall wheat consumption, which is projected to rise to 20.4 MMT next year.
Egypt’s grain market is facing a moment of uncertainty. While wheat imports remain stable, corn is struggling with oversupply, weak demand, and hesitant buyers.
The next few months will be critical if poultry and feed demand pick up, corn imports could recover, but if economic pressures persist, importers may continue to face losses.
For wheat, the outlook is steadier, but global risks cannot be ignored. Any currency shocks or freight disruptions could impact Egypt’s ability to maintain its cost-efficient import strategy, forcing buyers to adapt to new price realities.As always, traders and market participants must stay ahead of these developments, leveraging strategic buying opportunities while managing the risks of a volatile market landscape.
For traders navigating Egypt’s grain markets, timing and risk management are everything. In the corn market, the current weakness presents an opportunity for buyers to secure low-cost purchases, particularly feed mills looking to cover their needs for the second quarter of 2025.
However, traders must remain cautious if the Egyptian pound experiences further depreciation, import costs could rise unexpectedly, tightening margins even further.
For wheat importers, the key challenge will be monitoring freight costs and currency fluctuations. While Russia remains Egypt’s top supplier, any geopolitical disruptions in the Black Sea could shift purchasing patterns toward French or Ukrainian wheat, which may come at a higher price.
Additionally, rising Suez Canal transit fees and Red Sea security risks could push CIF wheat prices above $280 per ton, making cost-effective sourcing more difficult.
Authored by the GrainFuel Nexus® Strategic Intelligence Unit
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