Global corn supplies are tightening at a historic pace, with effective stock levels (excluding China) approaching 29-year lows. While China holds vast reserves—70% of global stocks—it remains largely self-sufficient, meaning its inventory does not ease supply shortages for major importers.
The stocks-to-use ratio excluding China is at 7.8%, a sharp drop from the 9.2% four-year average and the lowest since 1995-96. The USDA’s latest outlook predicts global corn ending stocks at 87 MMT, down 12% year-on-year, reinforcing the bullish sentiment in futures markets.
Global Corn Price FOB – February 2025
Country | USD
Per M/T | WoW
Change | Key Factors |
|---|
USA | 198 | ⬆ 1.5% | Strong export demand, lower-than-expected stocks |
Brazil | 204 | ⬆ 2.8% | Tight domestic balance, delayed second crop planting |
Argentina | 192 | ⬆ 1.2% | Higher farmer selling, steady production outlook |
Ukraine | 210 | ⬆ 3.2% | Logistics challenges, war disruptions, EU demand |
Brazil’s FOB price surpassing the U.S. Gulf reflects local supply constraints, while Ukraine’s premium signals risk premiums tied to Black Sea logistics and geopolitical tensions.
Regional Supply & Demand Fundamentals
USA: Resilient Exports, but Supply Uncertainty
- Corn stocks-to-use at 10.2%, down from 11.8% last year.
- 2024-25 production down 4.5% YoY, driven by yield declines.
- Demand remains strong, especially from Mexico, Japan, and South Korea.
- Planting decisions in March will dictate supply recovery in 2025-26.
Brazil: Tightest Stocks in 20+ Years
- Delayed planting of second-crop corn (Safrinha) due to dry weather, raising risks of lower yields.
- Exports remain robust, with 2024-25 shipments projected at 50 MMT, though supply uncertainty could curb aggressive sales.
- Premiums forming in the domestic market as crushers compete with exporters for limited supply.
Argentina: Recovery in Production, Cautious Farmer Selling
Weather has improved, with analysts maintaining a 52-54 MMT production estimate.
- Farmers holding back sales amid expectations of further price increases.
- Higher export taxes under new economic policies could impact competitiveness.
Ukraine & EU: War-Driven Disruptions
- Ukrainian supply chain remains fragile, with exports reaching 26 MMT so far in 2024-25, well below pre-war levels of 35+ MMT.
- EU corn imports have surged, filling gaps in feed demand, but local production struggles due to unfavorable weather.
Bullish Forces Dominate
- Tight Supplies to Support Prices – With effective global stocks at multi-decade lows and the Safrinha crop under risk, upward price momentum is expected.
- Planting in the U.S. is Key – If U.S. farmers increase acreage, it could ease supply constraints in late 2025.
- China’s Demand is a Wild Card – While largely self-sufficient, China could return to imports if prices correct, adding bullish pressure.
- Ukraine Logistics & Black Sea Tensions – Any further disruptions could push premiums higher for alternative suppliers
- Price Trend Projection: GrainFuel Nexus expects continued price support through Q2 2025, with potential spikes if Safrinha production estimates decline further.
GrainFuel Nexus® will continue to provide real-time updates as new trends emerge.
GrainFuel Nexus® | Expert Commodity Intelligence & Strategic Advisory
www.grainfuel-nexus.com
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