Soybean prices experienced a speculative rally, climbing by 3.2%, driven by adverse weather conditions in Argentina and Brazil.
Recent heavy rains in central and northern Argentina provided some relief, though the southwest received less precipitation than anticipated. A cyclone temporarily moderated high temperatures, but forecasts for the coming week suggest a return to hot, dry conditions, with temperatures ranging between 22–32°C. These unfavorable conditions are expected to exacerbate stress on soybean and corn crops, further limiting yield potential.
In central Brazil, excessive rainfall has significantly delayed the harvest of early soybean varieties. According to Conab, only 1.2% of the 47.4 million hectares of soybean crops have been harvested to date, a stark contrast to 6% at the same point last year. Forecasts indicate that heavy rains will persist over the next 7–10 days, potentially exacerbating logistical bottlenecks.Reports and photos of sprouting soybeans in waterlogged fields have fueled speculative buying activity in the futures market. However, the rains continue to support crop development and corn pollination in some regions, prompting local agencies to revise production estimates upwards.Abiove recently increased Brazil's soybean production forecast by 3 million metric tons, raising the estimate to 171.7 million metric tons—surpassing the USDA’s projection of 169 million metric tons. Abiove also adjusted its export forecast upward by 1.7 million metric tons to 106.1 million metric tons, reflecting robust supply expectations.
March soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose 3.2% to $392.2 per metric ton (+9.5% month-over-month). The upward movement was largely speculative, spurred by the challenging weather conditions in South America.
Weekly U.S. soybean exports declined by 18% to 973,200 metric tons, bringing cumulative seasonal exports to 32.3 million metric tons—a 20.6% increase year-over-year. This growth was driven by strong early-season shipments to China, as importers sought to preempt potential trade tariffs from the U.S. administration.
Export prices for GMO soybeans in Ukraine rose by $3–5 per metric ton, reaching $380–382 per metric ton or UAH 18,000–18,200 per metric ton, delivered to Black Sea ports. The price surge reflects constrained farmer supplies and increased competition among exporters.Non-GMO soybean export prices climbed to $400–405 per metric ton or UAH 19,300–19,500 per metric ton, delivered to Ukraine’s western border. However, demand from European buyers remains tepid, with a minimal premium for non-GMO certification. Domestic processor prices held steady at UAH 18,500–19,000 per metric ton, delivered to the factory.
The market is closely monitoring the potential implementation of tariffs by the U.S. administration on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico. Such measures could significantly alter global soybean and corn trade flows, reducing demand for U.S. exports and amplifying market volatility.
GrainFuel Nexus | Expert Commodity Intelligence & Strategic Advisory
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